Churchill Downs Picks: Stephen Foster Stakes 2024 Entries, Horses, Odds, and Predictions (2024)

Stephen Foster Stakes 2024

The summer stakes calendar rolls onward with a big one this weekend at Churchill Downs. The Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes features a prize purse of $1 million and serves as part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series. It is a 1 ⅛-mile race and the victor will earn an automatic spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic later this year at Del Mar.

Nine horses are entered in the race, which has a 6:03 p.m. ET post time on Saturday June 29 in the great state of Kentucky.

Here are the Stephen Foster Stakes entries, odds, jockeys, and trainers:

Five of the nine runners in this field are 4-year-olds, with three of the older horses – Happy American (Saturday scratch), Classic Causeway, and Steal Sunshine – as the long shots. The only short shot of the elder crop is Skippylongstocking, a very well-bred 5-year-old who draws the far outside post. Some analysts believe his odds will close very close to favorite First Mission.

Here are some notes on the horses:

1. Pyrenees (8-1; DeVaux/Hernandez): Even though Kenny McPeek has a horse in the field, Brian Hernandez Jr. assumes the mount on Pyrenees, a four-time winner and yet another accomplished colt sired by Into Mischief. This is a tough horse to gauge for trainer Cherie DeVaux. He was better than Kingsbarns (odds-on favorite) on Black-Eyed Susan Stakes Day at Pimlico with a Pimlico Special (G3) win to run his winning streak to four.

However, Pyrenees didn’t win his maiden until December 2023 after not running nearly the entire year as a 3-year-old and now he’s won four straight races. The step up in class here is noticeable, but he opened 12-1 after post draw and moved down a bit within a day. Hernandez has been the consistent rider for Pyrenees and has the controls again here.

2. First Mission (9-5; Cox/Geroux): The Cox/Geroux tandem is one that horseplayers know well, as they always seem to team up in big races. Geroux has the mount on the favorite, much like he did at Churchill during Kentucky Derby weekend in the G2 Alysheba. Given what we’ve seen from First Mission, missing the board in the Pegasus World Cup was a shocker, but that did come with Luis Saez aboard.

After that, Cox and Godolphin made the switch to Geroux, who has led dominant runs in the Essex Handicap at Oaklawn and the aforementioned Alysheba. Distance is not at all a problem for the son of Street Sense and Elude and he’s a deserving favorite here. It sure looks like Cox may run it back in the Stephen Foster after winning last year with West Will Power.

3. Happy American (30-1; Pessin/Lanerie): One of the few horses you can completely toss out in this race is Happy American, a five-time winner in 29 starts. The 6-year-old last won the Louisiana Stakes in January of 2023 and has finished third five times since, but hasn’t finished any higher than that and hasn’t been able to replicate last year’s speed numbers.

In fact, Pessin scaled him back to an allowance optional claiming last month at Churchill as something of a prep race for this and he finished third, going just one mile. It is also possible we see a scratch here, as Happy American is entered in the Hanshin Stakes on Sunday.

EDIT: Happy American was indeed scratched Saturday morning.

4. Disarm (6-1; Asmussen/Rosario): The well-bred 4-year-old Winchell Thoroughbreds product has all the connections that bettors typically look for. The tandem of Steve Asmussen and Joel Rosario. The son of Gun Runner and Easy Tap (Tapit). Gun Runner won this race back in 2017 and also went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic and Pegasus World Cup for good measure. Ironically, Gun Runner, like Disarm, won the Matt Winn Stakes in 2016. Disarm won it last year.

That is Disarm’s only stakes win and it came at Ellis Park and not Churchill Downs, but punters will note the coincidences. The question for Disarm, who won an ALWOC at Churchill last month, is whether or not he can find another gear. That was a low-speed win on a nine-month layoff. Prior to the layoff, Disarm’s speed numbers would rival any horse in the field and he finished fourth in the 2023 Kentucky Derby.

The other wrinkle? Joel Rosario reassumes the mount after running well on Disarm last year, including a second in the muddy Travers Stakes in August.

Want one more wrinkle? It was Asmussen who trained Gun Runner to the seven-length win here in the Stephen Foster and the wins in all those other races.

5. Dreamlike (8-1; Pletcher/I. Ortiz): If one Gun Runner colt wasn’t enough, how about a second one? This one also has strong connections with the Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr. tandem. Dreamlike is more of a closer and Disarm is more likely to go towards the front and either press or set the pace, so you may want to track the early races to see if there’s a speed bias at Churchill on Saturday.

Dreamlike won his maiden at Saratoga three months after finishing third in the Wood Memorial last year. He was also second in the Pennsylvania Derby last September and third in the Blame Stakes this year at Churchill on June 1. He’s been good enough to hit the board in seven of nine races, but only has one win.

Not to be left out in the “wrinkle” department, Dreamlike is wearing blinkers here after not wearing them in two starts this year.

6. Classic Causeway (30-1; McPeek/Leparoux): It is hard to glean a lot from Classic Causeway’s career, even though he has 22 data points. That’s because his last win came in his turf debut in the Belmont Derby. Back in 2022, he won that race, along with the Tampa Bay Derby and Sam F. Davis before finishing 11th in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Ohio Derby. He’s only hit the board twice since, including his 2024 debut in the Temperence Hill Stakes. The 5-year-old will run to the front early, and distance isn’t an issue with two recent runs of 1 ½ miles, but the class of competition is a major issue.

7. Kingsbarns (5-1; Pletcher/Saez): The second Todd Pletcher entry is Kingsbarns, a 4-year-old out of Uncle Mo and Lady Tapit. Kingbarns was better than Disarm in the 2023 Louisiana Derby and that is his biggest win to date out of five triumphs. He lost the Pimlico Special to Pyrenees by a head and torso last month, failing to hold the distance at 1 3/16 miles.

He’ll be asked to do a shorter distance here and figures to play a big role in this one. His only other Grade 1 data point was last year’s Kentucky Derby, where he had an awful trip and finished 14th. He won an allowance before racing in two G3 events to kick off his 4-year-old season. Horseplayers have a tough decision here because the pedigree and the connections are top-notch, but he only has eight career races and many are against weaker fields.

8. Steal Sunshine (20-1; Dibona/Lopez): The son of Constitution and Warm Sunshine feels like a real long shot and a surprise entry. His last two wins have both come at a mile and he’s finished third and fourth at distance in his last two races at 1 1/16 miles. This one is 1 ⅛, a distance the Steal Sunshine has not run since finishing fifth in the 2022 Oklahoma Derby.

9. Skippylongstocking (7-2; Joseph/J. Ortiz): In the race for best name, Skippylongstocking is the wire-to-wire winner of this race. The 5-year-old son of Exaggerator and Twinkling is also going to go to the front of the pack here, as rider Jose Ortiz led the well-traveled Bay to a win in the Oaklawn Handicap back in April. It was the second straight win for Skippylongstocking off of a Challenger Stakes triumph with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons.

He’s hit the board in five of the last six races. An uneven trip in the Pegasus World Cup where Gaffalione responsibly pulled him back is the only exception. The gap between the Pegasus and Challenger was about six weeks and the gap between the Challenger and Oaklawn was about six weeks. The gap between the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (3rd) and Pegasus was over two months…much like this layoff.

Stephen Foster Stakes Picks

This is a really good race on paper. Even though First Mission and Skippylongstocking are going to close as pretty clear favorites, Pyrenees, Disarm, and Kingsbarns all look like very legitimate contenders.

I love the current form for Pyrenees and he’s on an impressive trend line for a 4-year-old. I think the price keeps coming down throughout the week, but DeVaux has a late-blooming star on her hands.

I prefer First Mission to Skippylongstocking among the two favorites and I do worry if maybe Skippylongstocking gets a little complacent with the layoff, but I have a lot of respect for the body of work.

I don’t know that Disarm has the top gear in him to win this race, but I’ll be upset if he does and I don’t have at least a small piece. A lot of win picks here, but I think this is actually a wide-open race for the top four contenders.

Using a hypothetical $100 bankroll:

$15 Win ($30)

1 Pyrenees

2 First Mission

$10 Win ($10)

9 Skippylongstocking

$5 Win ($5)

4 Disarm

$5 Key Trifecta ($30)

2 / 1,4,9 / 1,4,9

$2 Key Trifecta ($24)

1 / 2,4,9 / 2,4,9

9 / 1,2,4 / 1,2,4

$1 Superfecta ($1)

2/1/9/4